The United States and Japan
are leading a fragile economic recovery among developed countries that
could yet be blown off course if the euro zone fails to contain the
damage from its problem debtor states, the OECD said on Tuesday.
In its twice-yearly economic outlook, the Paris-based Organisation for
Economic Co-operation and Development forecast that global growth would
ease to 3.4 percent this year from 3.6 percent in 2011, before
accelerating to 4.2 percent in 2013, in line with its last estimates
from late November.
"The global economic outlook is
still cloudy," OECD Secretary General Angel Gurria told reporters.
"At first sight the prospects for the global economy are somewhat
brighter than six months ago. At closer inspection, the global economic
recovery is weak, considerable downside risks remain and sizeable
imbalances remain to be addressed."
Growth across the
organisation's 34 members, generally the wealthiest in the world, would
ease this year to 1.6 percent from 1.8 percent in 2011 and then reach
2.2 percent in 2013, the OECD said, also roughly in line with previous
estimates.
Gurria said that public finances were "fragile", and in some cases "in dire straits", in OECD countries.
A perception that the burden of the economic crisis had not been fairly shared was fuelling a confidence crisis and European leaders should consider all possible measures to mend the bloc's debt problems.
"A bad outcome scenario in the euro area with implications for the rest of the world cannot be ruled out," he said.
The OECD forecast that the 17-member euro zone economy would shrink 0.1
percent this year before posting growth of 0.9 percent in 2013, though
regional powerhouse Germany would chalk up growth of 1.2 percent in 2012
and 2.0 percent in 2013.
"We see a slow rebound of growth in
the United States driven mostly by private demand, some pick-up in Japan
and moderate to strong growth in emerging economies," OECD chief
economist Pier Carlo Padoan told Reuters in an interview.
"We
also see flat growth in the euro area which hides important differences,
with northern countries growing and southern countries in recession,"
he added.
Although OECD economies were on the mend, the euro
crisis could still spiral out of control with Greece struggling to
remain solvent and Spanish banks needing to be recapitalised, Padoan
said.
The European Central Bank's injection of one trillion
euros ($1.3 trillion) of liquidity into the euro zone's banking system
and an increase in European bailout funds and IMF reserves had helped
keep the euro zone's debt crisis from spiralling out of control.
"If the situation gets worse, there are ways to enhance the firewall
capacity which could include a stronger intervention or role of the
ECB," Padoan said.
In particular, the ECB should not rule out
buying government bonds again to keep borrowing costs down, lending to
the ESM European bailout fund and cutting its benchmark interest rate,
which currently stands at 1.00 percent. The ECB could also consider
another injection of liquidity into the banking system.
U.S., CHINA ENGINES
In contrast to the euro zone, the United States was expected to
continue to benefit from easy credit conditions and ultra-loose monetary
policy, with the world's biggest economy forecast to grow 2.4 percent
this year and 2.6 percent in 2013. In November, the OECD had forecast
2.0 percent for 2012 and 2.5 percent for 2013.
Although some
budget tightening and a still weak housing market would be a drag on
growth, private sector demand would continue to strengthen as the
unemployment rate eased to as low as 7.5 percent by the end of 2013 from
8.1 percent in April.
The OECD said that while the United
States needed to step up the pace of its fiscal tightening, if tax cuts
were allowed to expire as scheduled in 2013 it could threaten growth.
Japan's economy was set to grow 2.0 percent this year and 1.5 percent in 2013 as a reconstruction boom after last year's earthquake and tsunami faded, although recovering world trade would offer support.
A rebound in global trade would be a bright spot for many economies,
with the OECD forecasting a surge from 4.1 percent growth this year to
7.0 percent in 2013.
Export giant China was forecast to grow
8.2 percent this year and 9.3 percent in 2013 as interest rate cuts and
increased social spending propped up domestic demand in the economy,
which is not an OECD member.
