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Tuesday, 23 July 2013
Rupiah Falls Most in 13 Months as Controls Ease; Bonds Surge
By Yudith Ho & Yanping Li - Jul 23, 2013 7:30 AM GMT+0400
Indonesia’s rupiah plunged the most in 13 months in onshore trading as Bank Indonesia allows a more rapid slide toward levels quoted in the offshore market. The yield on 10-year government bonds fell the most since 2008.
The rupiah slid 1.6 percent to 10,225 per dollar as of 10:26 a.m. in Jakarta, according to prices from local banks. The currency reached 10,258 earlier, the weakest level since July 14, 2009. One-month non-deliverable forwards were 0.9 percent weaker than the spot rate at 10,320. That gap exceeded 5 percent last month for the first time since 2011.
A money changer poses with Indonesian rupiah banknotes, in Jakarta. Photographer: Dimas Ardian/Bloomberg
“Bank Indonesia has stepped back to allow real supply and demand in the market to play out,” said Suriyanto Chang, head of treasury at PT Bank QNB Kesawan in Jakarta. “The rupiah could strengthen from now, as exporters sell dollars and investors start to look at picking up the nation’s debt.”
The central bank has allowed the rupiah to gradually depreciate, especially this month, Deputy Governor Perry Warjiyo said July 12. The nation recorded trade deficits in seven out of the past eight months, while its current account has been in shortfall for the six quarters through March, official data show.
The rupiah has weakened 2.9 percent in July and 5.8 percent this year, the worst performance among Asia’s 11 most-traded currencies after Japan’s yen and India’s rupee. The 10,000 per dollar level is in line with economic fundamentals, Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said last week.
One-month implied volatility in the rupiah, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rateused to price options, fell 19 basis points, or 0.19 percentage point, to 13.15 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. A fixing by the Association of Banks in Singapore that is used to settle the rupiah contracts was set at 10,163 yesterday.
“Investors remain unconvinced of the rupiah outlook and the nation’s current-account-deficit fundamentals, and are trying to get out while they have the chance,” said Greg Gibbs, foreign-exchange strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Plc in Singapore.
The yield on the 5.625 percent bonds due May 2023 fell 73 basis points to 7.12 percent, the lowest level since June 25, prices from the Inter Dealer Market Association show. The yield has plunged 1.18 percentage points in five days from a 28-month high of 8.3 percent on July 16.
A weaker rupiah minimizes the risk for foreign investors to buy Indonesian bonds and stocks as the currency gets closer to what might be the new equilibrium, said Alvin Pattisahusiwa, chief investment officer at PT Manulife Asset Management in Jakarta, adding that he expects the currency to weaken to 10,500 per dollar.
Chris Siniakov, the head of Asia fixed income at Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management inMelbourne, and Ezra Nazula, head of fixed income at Manulife Asset in Jakarta, said in interviews yesterday that a 10-year yield of around 8 percent offered good value for investors.