Tuesday, 6 August 2013

Euro at Almost 7-Week High After German Orders Climb

By Joseph Ciolli & Neal Armstrong - Aug 6, 2013 8:55 AM PT
The euro traded at almost a seven-week high against the dollar after a report showedGermany’s factory orders rebounded in June more than economists forecast, adding to signs the region is recovering.
The 17-nation currency rose versus most of its 16 major counterparts after separate data showed Italy’s recession eased in the second quarter. The yen touched an almost six-week high versus the greenback. The Australian dollar gained for a second day against the U.S. currency after the central bank damped expectations of further interest-rate cuts after reducing its benchmark to a record low.
Aug 5 (Bloomberg) -- Nicole Elliott, chief technical strategist at Forextrading.tv, talks about the outlook for the euro and dollar. She spoke Aug. 1 in London. (Source: Bloomberg)
“The euro got a bit a boost earlier from the German numbers,” Brian Kim, a currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc’s RBS Securities unit in StamfordConnecticut, said in a telephone interview. “European data has continued to do better, which could lend itself to near-term support for the euro.”
The euro gained 0.4 percent to $1.3306 at 11:52 a.m. New Yorktime after rising to $1.3345 on July 31, the highest level since June 19. The common currency fell 0.2 percent to 130.07 yen. Japan’s currency rose 0.6 percent to 97.76 yen per dollar after reaching 97.51, the strongest since June 26.

Rand, Zloty

The South African rand fell versus all 16 of its major peers as an expansion in U.S. service industries in July supported speculation that the Federal Reserve is poised to reduce monetary stimulus. The currency decreased 0.7 percent to 9.9147 per dollar after earlier rising 0.3 percent.
Poland’s zloty rose against most of its 31 most-traded counterparts after the increase in German factory orders. The zloty appreciated 0.5 percent to 3.1605 per dollar after touching 3.1568, its strongest level since June 14.
The British pound weakened for the first time in four days against the euro before Bank of England Governor Mark Carney presents a review tomorrow for implementing forward guidance in the U.K. Sterling depreciated 0.2 percent to 86.55 pence per euro.
The euro has strengthened 5.8 percent this year, the best performer among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The dollar rose 4.8 percent, while the yen slumped 8.2 percent.
A measure of price fluctuations among Group of Seven currencies fell for a fourth day. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s G-7 Volatility Index declined to 9.42 percent, the lowest intraday level in almost two weeks.

‘Fully Valued’

German factory orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, increased 3.8 percent from May, when they fell 0.5 percent, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said today. Analysts forecast a gain of 1 percent in June, according to the median of 42 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.
“The euro is looking pretty fully valued versus the dollar here,” said Jeremy Stretch, head of currency strategy at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in London. “The data is telling us we’ve probably hit the bottom in the euro area and we’re heading towards some modest growth. Whilst we’re seeing some degree of improvement it’s a much slower recovery than we’re seeing elsewhere.”
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said last week that economic indicators signal the euro region is past the worst of its longest-ever recession, while reiterating that interest rates will stay low for the foreseeable future.
The euro’s gains were limited after ECB Chief Economist Peter Praet said interest rates may be cut from a record-low 0.5 percent.

‘Neutral Bias’

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens cut the overnight cash-rate target by a quarter percentage point to 2.5 percent and said the central bank’s board “has previously noted that the inflation outlook could provide some scope to ease policy further.” That contrasted with last month’s view that the outlook for prices “may provide some scope for further easing.”
“They haven’t said that they have more room to cut rates,” said David Forrester, a senior vice president for Group of 10 currency strategy at Macquarie Bank Ltd. in Singapore. “It’s considered more of a neutral bias than an easing bias. I think we’ll see a squeeze” higher in the Aussie, he said.
Australia’s dollar appreciated 0.4 percent to 89.66 U.S. cents after sliding to 88.48 cents yesterday, the weakest level since August 2010.

Options Trading

The dollar briefly pared losses as the U.S. trade gap shrank 22.4 percent to $34.2 billion from a revised $44.1 billion in May that was smaller than previously estimated, the Commerce Department reported today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 72 economists called for a $43.5 billion deficit. Exports increased to an all-time high while imports fell to a three-month low.
Trading in over-the-counter foreign-exchange options totaled $11 billion, compared with $19 billion yesterday, according to data reported by U.S. banks to the Depository Trust Clearing Corp. and tracked by Bloomberg. Volume in options on the dollar-yen exchange rate amounted to $4.5 billion, the largest share of trades at 41 percent. Options on the dollar-Chinese yuan rate totaled $1.3 billion, or 12 percent.
Dollar-yen options trading was 4 percent more than the average for the past five Tuesdays at a similar time in the day, according to Bloomberg analysis. Dollar-yuan options trading was 19 percent less than average.
To contact the reporters on this story: Joseph Ciolli in New York at jciolli@bloomberg.net; Neal Armstrong in London at narmstrong8@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Robert Burgess at bburgess@bloomberg.net